My research focuses on the study of solar eruptive phenomena, particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are large-scale expulsions of magnetised plasma from the solar corona that can propagate through the heliosphere, and, when Earth-directed, can be geoeffective. Such events can influence near-Earth space weather and significantly affect technological systems, including satellites, communication and navigation networks (e.g., GPS), and power grids.

Under the supervision of Dr. Vincenzo Andretta and Dr. Giuliana Russano at INAF-OACN, my work aims to improve the prediction of CME arrival times at Earth by combining physics-based models with multi-viewpoint coronagraph observations. In particular, I use observations from the Metis coronagraph onboard Solar Orbiter, a joint mission by ESA and NASA launched to the Sun in 2020. Metis observes simultaneously in the Visible (VL) band between 580 and 640 nm and the Ultraviolet (UV) band at 121.6 nm. It observes at a high spatial and temporal resolution, allowing a comprehensive analysis of solar events.

These VL observations from Metis are complemented by white-light coronagraph data from earlier missions, including the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph onboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO/LASCO C2, C3) and Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation instrument suite aboard Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO/SECCHI COR2-A). For 3D reconstruction of the CMEs and deriving their kinematic parameters, the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model (GCS) is applied. These GCS parameters, along with the 3D CME speed, serve as inputs for the physics-based models used to forecast arrival times at Earth.

Specifically, we have employed the Drag-Based Model (DBM), a simplified analytical model that assumes CME propagation is governed primarily by magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) drag arising from interaction with the ambient solar wind. Its probabilistic extension, the Drag-Based Ensemble Model (DBEM), incorporates uncertainties in input parameters to provide ensemble-based arrival time predictions. We further employ 3D MHD models such as WSA–ENLIL, which couples magnetogram inputs from GONG and SOLIS with the ENLIL heliospheric model to simulate solar wind and CME propagation from the Sun to 1 AU (and beyond), and EUHFORIA, a data-driven 3D MHD framework that models the background solar wind and CME evolution throughout the inner heliosphere.

By integrating multi-instrument observations with physics-based modelling approaches, this work aims to improve the reliability and accuracy of CME arrival time forecasts and to enhance our understanding of the physical processes governing CME propagation and space weather impacts.